Seniority in the United States House of Representatives

Concluding November revealed the capstone of misrepresentation in American democracy when Hillary Clinton won the pop vote past 2.9 one thousand thousand votes but lost in the Electoral College.

Just what about the U.Southward. Congress? How representative of the American people is the House of Representatives? My Brookings colleague Molly Reynolds finds the Republican Political party's current "seat bonus"—a higher percentage of seats than of votes—aligns with the historic advantage for any majority party in the House over the last 70 years, back to 1946.

This post focuses on how representative the new 115th Congress is on a country-by-country level.

Majority party over-represented

Despite its proper noun, the House of Representatives is not and so representative.

As the chart below shows, the total vote differential between the two parties for elections to the House in 2022 was i.2 percent. But the divergence in the number of seats is x.8 percent, giving a full of 21 extra seats to Republicans.

Figure 1: National Distribution of Votes for Congress

	NUMBER		Percent
Party	Republican	Democrat	Republican	Democrat
Votes	63,164,365	61,750,858	50.6%	49.4%
Seats	241	194	55.4%	44.6%
"Misrepresented Seats"	21	-21	4.viii%	-iv.8

Over-representation by land

This amass over-representation of the majority party is considerably extreme when looked at land-by-state. In cerise states (see Figure 2), Republicans garnered 56 percent of the vote but 74.six percent of representation. In blue states, Democrats won 60.3 pct of the vote but 69.one percentage of representation.

Almost all states are "true"—"true ruddy states" have a Republican majority of votes and representation; "true blue states" have a Democratic majority of votes and representation. Two states are "flipped blueish states;"in Virginia and Wisconsin Republicans received a bulk of seats despite Democrats winning a majority of the votes for Congress.

Misrepresentation is considerably larger within each ruddy and blue grouping than in the U.S. as a whole. Translated into seats in the Business firm, Democrats over-represent blue states (excluding the two flipped states) by 19 seats, whereas Republicans over-represent true cerise and flipped blue states by xl seats. Republicans over-represent red states (true and flipped) by 16 per centum points, while in united blue states the disparity is eleven percentage points.

Effigy ii: Majority Party Wins Disproportionate Representation

Misrepresentation in small and big states

For individual states, misrepresentation is even larger. The level of misrepresentation is twenty percent or greater in 23 states—about half the country—and over 30 percentage in 12 states.

To a certain extent, misrepresentation is partly a function of country size. In small states with a unmarried fellow member—Alaska, Delaware, Montana, Northward Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming—in that location is no alternative to the votes of a portion of the citizens not being represented. In these states, on average, 37 percent of voters selected the losing party. Even states with two representatives—New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Maine, and Idaho—have a large degree of misrepresentation, on average 28 per centum. This is non surprising in a winner-take-all organisation. Overall, the misrepresentation from these small-scale states cancels out in the aggregate—in the 17 seats of these states there is only a three percentage point disparity between the distribution of votes and the distribution of seats.

On the other extreme are the 4 largest states—New York, Florida, Texas, and California. Together, these states send 143 representatives to Congress. Each has less than 10 pct misrepresentation—votes from the losing party in i district are compensated in other districts. Moreover, the overall distribution from these states is the storybook picture of democracy at work: Betwixt them, the distribution of votes and seats was equal, with less than ane per centum difference betwixt votes and representation (45 percent for Republicans, 55 for Democrats).

Effigy 3: Misrepresentation in Minor and Large States 2016

Note: The level of misrepresentation is computed as the deviation betwixt percent of votes and per centum of seats.

Misrepresentation in midsized states

That leaves the 34 midsized states, with 275 seats among them, to account for the observed misrepresentation. Figure iv plots the number of seats from each state against the level of misrepresentation. Large and minor states are gray; midsized states are red. In general there is an inverse correlation between the number of representatives from a state and the level of misrepresentation. States with three to five representatives range between 11 to 36 percentage points of misrepresentation, while those with 10-20 representatives range from 4 to 24 per centum points of misrepresentation.

Figure 4: Number of Seats in Congress Compared to Level of Representation

Effigy 5 beneath shows the level of misrepresentation in the 34 midsized states, ranked in order of the level of misrepresentation with blue and carmine states shown separately. This figure shows the quite large level of asymmetric representation in many states. Out of the 34, more than one-third (13) have a disparity between votes and representation of 20 percent or larger, and in all but five states the disparity is greater than 10 percent.

Midsized red states have on average a considerably higher percentage level of misrepresentation—in these states, while 58 percent of the votes went to Republicans, they took 76 percent of the seats—an 18 percentage point departure that translates into 34 seats. Comparatively, in the midsized blue states, 59 percentage of votes were for Democrats, who obtained 72 percentage of seats—a xiii percentage point deviation that translates into 11 seats. Furthermore, ruddy states make upwardly nine of the 13 states with an excess of xx points or higher misrepresentation.

Effigy 5: Misrepresentation in Midsized States in 2016

Notation: Level of misrepresentation computed every bit the difference between percent of votes and percentage of seats.

Redistricting

What is underlying this event? In principle, such results are possible even if virtually of the state is competitive, merely 1 political party has an border in the majority of the districts. In practice, how districts are drawn can also affect outcomes. In fact, some states have moved to take redistricting away from elected state politicians by instituting independent redistricting commissions. The four large states that have independent commissions—California, New Jersey, Washington, and Arizona—have less than 10 percent misrepresentation. The 2 other states with independent commissions, Idaho, and Montana, with two and ane congressional representatives respectively, accept greater than 30 percent misrepresentation. There is no getting around size!

Overrepresentation by number of seats per state

As to states with the most number of "extra" seats, Democrats dominate in California, with almost v addition seats. Republicans have approximately iii extra seats in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and N Carolina.

Figure half dozen: Over-representation of Majority Party

Note: Measured in congressional seats (compared with distribution of the votes).

Implications

The independence of the U.S. was launched by a revolt over the lack of representation. Misrepresentation can lead to social and economic policy distortions, feed distrust, and drive discontent in authorities. Gerrymandering hinders party competition and the resulting political monopoly feeds extremism in the majority party. The edge provided by this misrepresentation gives the bulk party asymmetric power that is particularly destabilizing and dangerous in an era of heightened polarization and partisanship.

The data suggest that the most serious problem is in midsized states, a problem that could exist alleviated by the design of districts by contained bodies.

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Source: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2017/02/22/misrepresentation-in-the-house/

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